On Location at Cop15 | COP15 must deliver a dangerous global climate emergency (FCCC loaded) statement

*GLOBAL CLIMATE STATE OF EMERGENCY*

We support John Holdren (see below) and James Hansen that the world is beyond dangerous climate change facing catastrophe and in a state of global climate emergency (as Ban Ki-moon has also stated).

An emergency response is needed now – this year.

There is no question we have half the worlds population today and all future generations in a dire state of emergency.

The national science academies of Moldovia and Bangladesh have now issued global climate emergency position statements.

We believe the IPCC scientists would welcome an updated upgraded strong civil society position. The scientists are declining to do this (generally) however, they would support civil society with statements made on today’s worst case scenario science (that we are firmly on).

The fact that IPCC gave us at the most 8 years to stay below 2 to 2.4C on 2006 science and IPCC scenarios means we have zero years left.

Without civil society making and campaigning on the dangerous global climate emergency (FCCC loaded) statement there is no drive to political will and we are in fact denying the future any hope at all.

*DANGEROUS CLIMATE INTERFERENCE*

Incredibly there is no submission from anyone to Copenhagen stating we are beyond dangerous.

The IPCC will never do so as they call that a value judgement that scientists cannot make!

The March 09 Copenhagen Climate Science Congress said they could not say what dangerous is – ‘only society as a whole’ can do so.

*CORAL REEFS WRITTEN OFF*

With worlds coral reefs now doomed how can we not finally state the obvious – we are way past dangerous interference and must still fight to save the reefs.

*Freezer plan’ bid to save coral*

BBC News, Copenhagen 25 October 2009

The prospects of saving the world’s coral reefs now appear so bleak that plans are being made to freeze samples to preserve them for the future.

A meeting in Denmark took evidence from researchers that most coral reefs will not survive even if tough regulations on greenhouse gases are put in place.

There is no possible reason for civil society to not be submitting we are beyond dangerous climate interference and not declare a state of global climate emergency- especially right now for Copenhagen.

*2C SUICIDE*

Copenhagen is still assuming the global suicidal pact 2C target. James Hansen said last year that it’s disastrous.

As Greenpeace says in their science update report we are on the brink of runaway climate change (at today’s 0.7 to 0.8C).

We do not know if we can still avoid catastrophic runaway- it’s not looking good.

We do know that if we aim for 2C (anything over 1C), if we aim for above 350ppm C and if we aim for delaying reducing emissions we are inviting runaway.

*FOOD SECURITY*

Our Food security is dire peril and this is not recognized.

At 2C all our main agricultural regions fail.

The new regional climate models give a regional increase of 2 to 2.5 times the global average for all our main agricultural regions.

That means +4 to 6C targeting 2C global average.

The Sept 09 UN Met Office model ensemble (17 models) gets us at 4C as early as 2060.

This fits with the MIT model which gets us at 2C 2035 and 7C at 2100 (note the MIT is from year 2000).

Without an all out global emergency response now we are looking at agriculture failing in all regions and globally by 2035.

IPCC 07 on agriculture is as follows.

Global average temperature increases are given relative to 1980-1999.

Modelling results for a range of sites find that, in mid – to high latitude regions / moderate to medium / local /increases in temperature (1-3ºC), along with associated carbon dioxide (CO2) increase and rainfall changes, can have small beneficial impacts on crop yields.

In low-latitude regions, even moderate temperature increases (1-2°C) are likely to have negative yield impacts for major cereals. Further warming has increasingly negative impacts in all regions.

These results, on the whole, project the potential for global food production to increase with increases in local average temperature over a range of 1 to 3ºC, but above this range to decrease. (IPCC).

These IPCC projections are from year 2000. Corrected for 1900 (add 0.5C) are as follows.

*Low latitude negative local changes 1.5 – 2.5°C

*All regions and globally decline above 3.5C

3.5C regionally is 1.8C global average at the max.

We need a greatly revised upgraded post Copenhagen global climate emergency position.

Now is the time to do that.

The 2007 Bali road map to Copenhagen was generally and publicly recognized as the worlds last change to avoid global climate catastrophe.

Bill Hare is right (Worldwatch State of the World 09) that we must plan policy to get back down below +1C as fast as possible.

*COPENHAGEN FRAUD*

James Hansen is right. Copenhagen is a fraud.

Any policy that does not include carbon taxing is a fraud because without taxing carbon we are dead.

Relying on carbon cap legislation and C trading emissions will continue to rise. It would take a great many years for emissions to even slow under cap and trade – if ever.

*CARBON FEEDBACKS*

The IPCC numbers did not include carbon feedbacks.

We have confirmed carbon feedback adding emissions (Global Carbon Budget Global Carbon Project).

This includes Arctic methane carbon feedback at least in part contributing the post 2006 methane atmospheric spike (NOAA).

So the fact is that at today’s 0.7-8C we are at catastrophically dangerous as John Holdren has been saying in his lectures since 2006 (see below).

*ZERO CARBON*

The other fact of the science is that we have to target zero carbon emissions – the science is 100% definite on that.

That means making policy today to totally convert fossil fuels to conservation + renewables.

This does not happen if we just aim for less carbon emissions.

Less is easy to do but it means the future is still dead because 20% of all CO2 lasts 1000 years in the atmosphere.

We can peak within a year – we in fact have done so over the past year (IEA).

Emissions are 3% less over the past year which is 6% less that planned.

So we must and can continue to drop emissions. A delay in peaking means increasing emissions and is unconscionable.

*IPCC 2007*

[350
– 400 CO2 stabilization.]

[445
– 490 CO2 eq. stablzn.] [2000 – 2015 CO2 peak]

[-85
to -50 change Co2 emissions %]

[TCav
(over preindustrial 2.0 – 2.4]

The emission reductions to meet a particular stabilization level reported in the mitigation studies assessed here might be underestimated due to missing carbon cycle feedbacks.

For most stabilization levels, global average temperature is approaching the equilibrium level over a few centuries.

~ by Cory Morningstar on December 10, 2009.

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